For several years, Manitoba Hydro filed forecasts for electric load in support of its General Rate Applications that were well above forecasts published by other utilities in North America and that turned out to be well above actual experience as time advanced.1 Its filed forecasts for Demand Side Management (DSM), on the other hand, have been inconsistent, frequently changing during hearings conducted in connection with these applications.
This presentation will show that the pattern of over-forecasting, in evidence for several years beginning about a decade ago, began to change shortly after Manitoba Hydro obtained approval for system expansion and licenses were granted for key elements of that expansion even though there was evidence for several prior years that electric load forecasts were not being met. It documents Manitoba Hydro’s current and recent forecasts for electric load comparing them with historic records. Both Gross Firm Energy and Gross Total Peak are considered.
It also documents the impact of DSM as planned by Manitoba Hydro and as mandated by the Efficiency Manitoba Act. In all cases, at-generation values of electric load are used. Except for DSM mandated by Efficiency Manitoba, all data used are taken directly or calculated from Manitoba Hydro’s submissions to the Manitoba Public Utilities Board (PUB).
The Efficiency Manitoba Act sets targets for energy but fails to set targets for peak load. DSM mandated by Efficiency Manitoba for energy is projected forward at 1.5% per year beginning with a 2017/18 value of Gross Firm Energy calculated from regressed weather-adjusted values reported by Manitoba Hydro for the most recent 10 historic years. No DSM savings for peak load are calculated for Efficiency Manitoba.